Japan Takes Command
Japan Takes Command
From AI to F-15s, Japan Announces New Initiatives
Hub Story: Japan Announces New Initiatives
Spoke Story: New South Korean Polling on Security Attitudes
Spoke Story: Australia Announces New Industrial Policies
Spoke Story: South Korea Boosts Arms Exports
Hub Story: Japan Deepens its Base
This week’s Hub focus is on new security announcements from Japan. A fair amount of these are follow through deliverables from Kishida’s visit to Washington in April.
Kishida’s Washington visit marked a serious upgrade in U.S.-Japan defense ties. Around 70 new agreements were announced, most designed to boost coordination between the two countries. Of particular relevance for this week is the Defense Industry Cooperation section:
FACT SHEET: Japan Official Visit with State Dinner to the United States:
Deepening U.S.-Japan Defense Industry Cooperation: The United States and Japan plan to leverage our respective industrial bases to establish an Alliance defense production capacity to meet the demand for critical capabilities over the long term. We will convene a Forum on Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition and Sustainment (DICAS) co-led by the U.S. Department of Defense and Japan Ministry of Defense to identify priority areas for partnering U.S. and Japanese industry, including on co-development, co-production and co-sustainment. As a part of this mutually beneficial effort, we announce our intention to explore co-production of advanced and interoperable missiles for air defense and other purposes to further bolster the Alliance deterrence posture. Our two countries also commit to establishing a working group to explore opportunities for future fighter pilot training and readiness, including AI and advanced simulators, and co-development and co-production of cutting-edge technologies such as common jet trainers to maintain combat-ready next-generation fighter airpower.
Tokyo has made some steps this week to advance the DICAS. Aiming for a 2025 start date, Japan will be servicing U.S. F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. This is a critical development to harmonize allied defense industrial cooperation, especially with a critical partner like Japan. Currently, the U.S. has about 100 F-15s and F-16s total at Misawa and Kadena air bases. Every few years, the jets get flown to South Korea to get fully serviced. Japan’s new commitment will make it so that those costly trips to South Korea are lessened. However, it’s not just a convenience upgrade; the latest announcement has real operational benefits if the U.S. were to go to war.
Japan is arguably the closest American ally in the region. Tokyo and Washington are increasingly aligned on threat perceptions and defense prioritizations. It is still unclear to what extent Japan would be directly involved in combat operations if the U.S. had to go to war with China, but it would undoubtedly be an important staging ground for U.S. forces. South Korea is another important ally, but while Japan is becoming more forward-leaning in helping deter China, South Korea remains focused on the North Korean threat. Being able to fully service F-15s and F-16s in Japan will greatly affect the United States’ ability to keep those jets in the fight. If the United States had to service them in South Korea, there’s a chance Washington would hit road bumps due to Seoul’s concern about getting dragged into a war with China. The United States must continue to figure out these issues now so that they aren’t an issue during a war.
This announcement perfectly synchronizes with the Defense Department’s release of the Regional Sustainment Framework (RSF). The RSF is focused on utilizing allies for Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO), which is exactly what Japan’s initiative with U.S. jets is supposed to support. While the thrust of the RSF is welcomed, the actual details are very light. Very light…
Regional Sustainment Framework:
Prevail in a Contested Logistics Environment: Optimize and align weapon system product support strategies to establish a viable distributed MRO ecosystem.
Enhance Military Readiness: Collaborate with the defense industrial base and allies and partners to build regionally-focused sustainment strategies that increase readiness and deter aggression.
Strengthen Regional Partnerships: Develop sustainment strategies promoting joint/allied regional MRO to expand repair network capacity across warfighting domains.
Even though it doesn’t provide specifics, it might be a good guiding principle as DoD continues to pursue these MRO partnerships.
Additionally, Japan’s Parliament passed revised laws to establish a new joint command headquarters for the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). The new headquarters will host about 240 personnel and should be set up by March 2025. This development will make it much easier as the United States and Japan look to build a combined command and control network, another initiative from Kishida’s visit to Washington.
Finally, the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced that it is establishing a DARPA-esque R&D center to leverage Japan’s robust private technology industry for next-generation military capabilities. It looks like the Defense Ministry will focus particularly on AI and autonomous vehicles. This is an area ripe for the picking:
International Trade Administration:
Japan is home to some of the world’s leading manufacturers and robotics companies. As of 2022, 45% of all industrial robots in the world were originally produced or designed by companies in Japan. Orders for industrial robots from Japanese manufacturers hit a record $7.35 billion in 2022, up 1.6% from the previous year. Production increased by 5.6%, also a record.
Japan’s deep reservoir of tech savviness will help it become a global hub for artificial intelligence, especially with major investments from companies like Microsoft and growing government subsidies.
If Japan is successful at standing up this new Japanese DARPA — and can keep it insulated from its bureaucratic malaise — there will be a lot of opportunities for co-production down the road. Hopefully, this new Forum on Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition, and Sustainment (DICAS) will look to incorporate Japan’s fledgling DARPA.
Spoke Story: South Korea and Their Neighbors
The South Korean-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies has released their yearly “South Koreans and Their Neighbors” survey. The survey “showcases the current views of South Koreans towards neighboring countries, the ROK-U.S. alliance, outlook on relationships with the United States and North Korea, nuclear armament, strategic choices between the United States and China, and U.S. global leadership.”
There’s a lot to digest, and the survey should be read in full, but here are some highlights:
“ROK-U.S. alliance: Regarding the most important policy issue facing the ROK-U.S. alliance, 47.9% chose strengthening security cooperation to respond to North Korean nuclear threats. This was followed by increasing trade to revitalize the economy (30.9%), cooperating to balance the rise of China (8.8%), and responding to global agendas including climate change (8.3%).”
“Nuclear deterrence and assurance: South Korean support for acquiring an independent nuclear weapons capability reached the highest point at 70.9% (Oppose: 27.4%). This is the highest figure since the Asan Institute first began surveying this question in 2010 (min: 54.8%, max: 70.9%). In addition, a majority of respondents (63.8%) also supported reintroducing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula (Oppose: 33.5%).”
Two big takeaways:
The survey shows that U.S.-ROK alliance favorability is quite high, but as the polling shows, it is pretty limited to addressing North Korean security. Only 8.8% see balancing against China as the primary policy issue.
South Koreans want nukes. They really want nukes. Biden and ROK President Yoon tried to prevent this last year during Yoon’s state visit, but obviously, that has not quelled concerns.
Spoke Story: Australia Gets Their Own Industrial Policy
The Albanese Government in Canberra has announced its Made in Australia plan. It is a nearly A$23 billion (US$15 billion) investment in Australia’s domestic manufacturing base, with an emphasis on clean energy. The United States Studies Centre has a good rundown of its substance and how it compares to the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act. There is also a big emphasis on economic security, critical minerals, and strategic supply chains.
Value-Adding to Our Resources and Strengthening Economic Security:
Implementing a Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive to provide a production incentive valued at ten per cent of relevant processing and refining costs for Australia’s 31 critical minerals, for critical minerals processed and refined between 2027-28 to 2039-40, for up to ten years per project, at an estimated cost to the Budget of A$7 billion over the medium term;
A$10.2 million to work with states and territories to develop pre-feasibility studies of common-use infrastructure, which promotes a competitive and productive critical minerals sector;
A$1.5 billion to strengthen battery and solar panel supply chains via the Solar Sunshot Program and Battery Breakthrough Initiative;
A$165.7 million to support businesses to scale up and deliver the Sovereign Defence Industrial Priorities; and
A$14.3 million to work with trade partners to strengthen our global competitiveness and support benchmarks for trade in high-quality critical minerals.
When compared to the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act’s $370 billion, this is much smaller. But its a demonstration that allied countries are increasingly beginning to see economic security and manufacturing capacity as a national security priority.
Spoke Story: South Korean Arms Exports
South Korean President Yoon has been a noticeable shift from his predecessors mostly due to his embrace of South Korea’s larger responsibility in promoting regional security. As noted above, there is only so much he can do with the ever-present North Korean threat, but he has sought to align the ROK closer with the U.S. and other nations.
As part of that national security shift, Yoon announced a new initiative in February for the ROK to become a more significant arms export.
Nikkei Asia: K-Defense: South Korea's Weapons Industry Goes Global:
“Already a powerhouse for technology like chips and batteries, South Korea is now the world's ninth-largest arms exporter, with the volume of its exports up 74% in the five years from 2018 to 2022. In 2022, Yoon announced his goal of taking the world's fourth spot by 2027.”
South Korea has already been proactive in supporting NATO and Ukraine. In 2022, the South Korean defense company Hanwha Aerospace signed a $22 billion contract with Poland to supply 672 K9 howitzers and 288 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers.
South Korea has expanded arms exports to Europe and the Middle East, but this week, they went to Southeast Asia. Minister of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) Seok Jong-gun visited Malaysia to talk about South Korean exports of light attack aircraft, rocket artillery systems, and a surface-air-to missile system. After Kuala Lumpur, Seok went to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. Philippine officials expressed interest in South Korea's fighter jets and submarines, while talks with Vietnamese officials focused on self-propelled howitzers.
Ultimately, Seoul is hoping to secure $20 billion worth of arms exports this year, compared to the $14 billion South Korea did last year.