Down Under Steps Up

Navigating the Solomon Quandary

May 24, 2024

Hub Story: Australian Deputy Prime Minister Visits the Solomon Islands
Spoke Story: 2024 Indo-Pacific Business Forum
Spoke Story: South Korea Meets with U.S. Space, Army, and Special Operations Leaders
Spoke Story: DoD Visits Palau

Hub Story: Australia Engages the Solomon Islands

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles traveled to the Solomon Islands this week to meet with the newly elected Prime Minister, Jeremiah Manele.

Create a classic old-style map featuring Australia and the South Pacific. The map should have a vintage look with sepia tones, decorative compass roses, and intricate border designs. Include labels for major regions and islands, such as Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and New Zealand, and depict old-fashioned sailing ships and sea monsters in the ocean. The overall style should evoke a sense of exploration and adventure from the Age of Discovery.

Australian defense strategy puts a high importance on the South Pacific. Australia's 2024 National Defense Strategy calls for the defense only of the Australian homeland and its "immediate region." For other regions, Australia only commits to "deterring" and "contributing." Many Pacific Island nations sit between Australia and China, making it a vital interest that Australia is the security partner of choice. It is especially important because most Pacific Island nations lack militaries of their own. Only Papua New Guinea, Tonga, and Fiji have their own armed forces and with very limited capability. However, these island nations still need protection and security, which creates the current situation in which Australia finds itself.

The security landscape in the South Pacific is undergoing significant changes. Some Pacific Island nations, such as Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands, have established close security ties with the United States through formal defense treaties. However, China's recent engagement with these nations, offering inducements like security support and infrastructure financing, has introduced a new element of competition. The Solomon Islands, in particular, have become a focal point of concern for both Canberra and Washington.

Under former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare ended 36 years of diplomatic ties with Taiwan and switched recognition to China in 2019. In 2022, he signed a wide-ranging security and policing agreement with Beijing. The newly elected Prime Minister, Jeremiah Manele, was foreign minister to Sogavare and personally spearheaded these initiatives. Since Sogavare started to drift the Solomon Islands closer to Beijing, Australia has sought to shore up its northern front and engage with the Solomon Islands more.

Australian Federal Police personnel have been stationed in the Solomon Islands since 2021 when deadly riots broke out, and Sogavare called for international assistance. During his trip this week, Marles agreed to extend the deployment until 2025. Additionally, Marles pledged 50 million Australian dollars ($33.2 million) for border management and a health care center, this is on top of the estimated AU$171 million of Official Development Assistance in 2023-24.

Ultimately, Australia has to keep leaning forward on the Solomon Islands. With the Solomon Islands being located in the South Pacific, giving China a military foothold in Australia's front yard is too big of a security risk. Manele will most likely follow in the steps of his predecessor, namely, playing both sides. The Solomon Islands will probably continue to court China as they work with Australia and the United States for better development aid. It is the strategic leverage that non-align countries have in great-power rivalry. But it's not a game, and the risks are real. Canberra will need to stay engaged.

Spoke Story: 2024 Indo-Pacific Business Forum

On May 21, the United States and the Philippines co-hosted the sixth Indo-Pacific Business Forum (IPBF). It was held in Manila and was the second time it was hosted in Southeast Asia, Vietnam being the other time in 2020. State Department released a fact sheet:

State Department: 2024 Indo-Pacific Business Forum Forges New Collaborations, Spurs Innovation, and Drives Investment:

IPBF is the premier U.S. government commercial diplomacy event in the region, connecting CEOs, project developers, government officials, and sources of financing for priority infrastructure in emerging Indo-Pacific economies. Through keynote remarks, plenary panels, breakout sessions, and business matchmaking, participants shared their insights on the latest trends, opportunities, and solutions to support critical projects across all sectors…
We are pleased to announce that two priority White House engagements were launched. Senior Advisor Hochstein, Japanese Deputy General Ishizuki, and Philippine Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Go followed through on their leaders’ commitment from the first-ever U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Leaders’ Summit in April co-chairing the first Luzon Economic Corridor steering committee meeting, a demonstration of our commitment to IPEF partners and a key deliverable under the PGI-IPEF Investment Accelerator.
The second being the launch of the IPEF Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Network, which AUSTR Ellerman and Counselor and Chief Negotiator for IPEF Sharon Yuan introduced to IPEF SME stakeholders. The IPEF SME Network is a new initiative that will connect SME organizations across the 14 IPEF partner countries to promote regional trade and investment, facilitate business-to-business ties, and enhance the economic competitiveness of SMEs in the Indo-Pacific region.

The press release goes into more detail about recent investments U.S. corporations have made in the Indo-Pacific region. Together, Advanced Micro Devices, Applied Materials, Citi, Delta Air Lines, GE, Lam Research, Micron Technology, Microsoft, and PepsiCo have invested billions of dollars into the region, many of these high-tech jobs.

It would be great to see the inclusion of American and allied defense contractors or a separate event for Indo-Pacific defense companies. Washington is finally expanding its concept of defense production to include allied defense industrial bases. Navy Secretary Del Toro recently visited South Korea to entice Korean shipbuilding companies to establish a presence in the United States. Anduril Industries recently unveiled its Ghost Shark for Australia, an autonomous undersea vehicle. This type of defense industrial collaboration is going to grow significantly. South Korea is motivated to become one of the world’s leading arms exports, and Japan, for the first time, announced they will also begin to export arms. The Indo-Pacific doesn’t need a gun show, but some sort of multi-day event to gather multinational policymakers and industry leaders would be highly valued.

Spoke Story: South Korea Meets with U.S. Space, Army, and Special Operations Leaders

North Korea recently shot more short-range ballistic missiles into the East China Sea to test nuclear command-and-control. Continued North Korean provocations have pushed South Korea and the United States closer together.

Earlier this month, South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Kim Myung-soo met with U.S. Space Force’s Chief of Space Operations General B. Chance Saltzman. To better harmonize U.S.-ROK space defense cooperation, U.S. Forces Korea established its own space component unit, U.S. Space Forces Korea, in December 2022.

Yonhap News Agency: JCS Chairman, U.S. Space Force General Discuss Space Strategy:

The two sides discussed ways to closely coordinate space policy and operations to counter rising threats posed by North Korea's space-based surveillance and deepening military ties with Russia, the JCS said.
They also agreed to develop combined space operations, establish a military space consultative body and push for a tabletop exercise on space domains to strengthen their combined space capabilities.

In addition to space operations, Seoul is also planning to increase special operations. Defense Minister Shin Won-sik brought top military leaders from South Korea’s Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps to meet with U.S. Special Operations Command Korea.

Yonhap News Agency: S. Korea, U.S. Hold Meeting of Special Operations Commanders Amid N.K. Threats:

"Special warfare units play a core role in deterring and responding to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats," Shin was quoted as saying by the ministry. "The concept of offensive special operations should be more meticulously developed and a close cooperation system between South Korea and U.S. special warfare units should be established."

It’s not immediately clear what Shin means by “offensive special operations.” However, since Shin took over as Defense Minister in October 2023, he has promoted a broader offensive strategy toward North Korea. His offensive strategy can be summarized as “PISU: Punish Immediately, Strongly, and Until the end.” Or, as he more cleanly quipped, “Punishment is containment, and containment is peace." CSIS has a good primer on South Korea’s new offensive strategy, and it is well worth the read.

In the short term, it at least looks like South Korea will deploy special forces to the DMZ in response to North Korea's restoration of demolished guard posts along the border.

Spoke Story: DoD Visits the Pacific Island Palau

Representatives from the Department of Defense and U.S. Coast Guard made trips to Palau this week to begin discussions on new collaboration efforts. Palau is a critical partner for the United States. They are one of the three island nations in the Compacts of Free Association. Washington has had deep engagement with Palau for decades. Luckily, Congress approved a 20-year renewal of the compacts, allowing for continued cooperation.

DoD officials held public engagements with citizens of Palau to hear concerns about the U.S.-Palau’s new plans to expand defense infrastructure, which include repairs and expansion to the Peleliu Airstrip and Peleliu’s South Dock.

Additionally, U.S. Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam also visited Palau.

U.S. Coast Guard Visit to Republic of Palau Strengthens Maritime Navigation and Cooperation:

This visit, in response to a request from Palau Marine Transportation, focused on an Aids to Navigation (ATON) Subject Matter Expert Exchange (SMEE). The exchange laid the foundation for a future SMEE planned for later in the year, including personnel from the 225-foot sea-going buoy tender, USCGC Hickory (WLB 212).
Palau requested U.S. Coast Guard assistance with establishing four additional fixed aids in locations challenged by the rapid depth changes and strong currents. A microbeacon barge, a type of barge equipped with microbeacon technology which often is used for shallow water ATON positioning and coastal navigation, is the most suitable asset for this task due to the channel's bathymetry. The barge is provided by the U.S. Coast Guard and will be delivered by USCGC Hickory upon the buoy tender’s arrival back to the Western Pacific. The Palauan team plans to use the microbeacon barge for servicing coastal aids to navigation in shallow waters.

Now this is actual win-win diplomacy that the United States should continue. The United States is addressing a very specific need with immediate impact, while building critical maritime infrastructure that the U.S. Navy might need one day.

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