Innovate and Defend: The US-New Zealand Tech and Strategy Shift
Innovate and Defend: The US-New Zealand Tech and Strategy Shift
US-New Zealand; US-ROK Nuclear Talks; New Indian Sub; Japan's Defense White Paper' Vietnam-Philippines; Japan and Australia 2+2
Hub Story: US-New Zealand Strategic Dialogue
Spoke Story: US-South Korea Extended Deterrence Talks
Spoke Story: New Indian Attack Submarine
Spoke Story: Japan Releases 2024 Defense White Paper
Spoke Story: Vietnam and Philippines Sign New Defense Agreement
Spoke Story: Japan and Australia 2+2 Meetings
Hub Story: US-New Zealand Strategic Dialogue
On August 30, 2024, officials gathered in Auckland to participate in the New Zealand–United States Strategic Dialogue. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and New Zealand Secretary of Foreign Affairs Bede Corry reaffirmed their commitment to deepening security, defense, and economic ties amidst global challenges.
Much of the press statements were along the lines of standard joint ally statements. Both countries voiced concerns over destabilizing actions in the South China Sea and reaffirmed their support for regional stability and the Pacific Islands Forum. They also highlighted their commitment to working with like-minded partners to uphold a stable Indo-Pacific region and looked forward to future high-level meetings.
The more significant takeaway is the launch of the New Zealand-United States Dialogue on Critical and Emerging Technologies.
US Department of State: New Zealand–United States Strategic Dialogue:
This will facilitate links between New Zealand and United States technology sectors, explore new avenues for research cooperation, and focus on opportunities to address regulatory and legal issues pertaining to the technology partnership between the two countries. The launch of this new strand of the relationship will enhance economic connections and build prosperity, including through technology and innovation, and is a fitting means to celebrate the 150th anniversary of when American scientists visited New Zealand for the first time to observe the transit of Venus.
The United States and New Zealand committed to pursue focused collaboration on the need to advance safe, secure, trustworthy, and responsible AI innovation; safe and secure biotechnologies; and quantum computing. They reaffirmed that the digital economy and information and communication technologies act as an essential enabler of these critical and emerging technologies.
The new forum on critical and emerging technologies joins the list of growing dialogues that the US and New Zealand are convening. In April, the two countries held a United States-New Zealand Space Dialogue.
These dialogues are relatively standard amongst close allies and partners. Still, this growing engagement may be part of New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s new “reset” in New Zealand security policy. Luxon is eager to engage with the United States and be more forward-leaning on security policy. Earlier this year, Luxon announced that he would send NZ troops to the Gulf of Aden to join the multinational coalition defending shipping from the Houthis.
Fact Sheet: NZDF Deployment To Protect Red Sea Shipping:
The decision to deploy a team of six NZDF personnel to uphold maritime security in the Red Sea has been made with these same goals in mind: defending lives, de-escalating tensions, and restoring stability to the Red Sea.
Cooperating on critical and emerging technologies makes sense for the relationship. Given Luxon’s new security policy and its historically close ties with Australia, it begs whether this dialogue will eventually help facilitate NZ participation in Pillar 2 of AUKUS. This is pretty unlikely, at least in the near term. Australia is very stand-offish about the idea, despite Kurt Campbell’s many hints that other countries will join Pillar 2. Eventually, AUKUS might open up Pillar 2 on a case-by-case basis, but there is already so much to fix with export controls that it is unlikely NZ will be meaningfully incorporated soon.
While a smaller nation, New Zealand is a hub for education and technology. According to a recent study, the New Zealand tech sector will comprise 23,433 firms in 2022, an 8.1 percent increase from the previous year, creating 1,752 new tech firms. The largest growth was in digital technology, with 1,302 new firms in 2022, a 9.8 percent year-on-year growth rate. New Zealand’s most prosperous technology sector is information and communication technology (ICT). The technology sector in New Zealand is only bound to grow. Further cooperation should be pursued.
Spoke Story: US-South Korea Extended Deterrence Talks
On September 4, 2024, the foreign affairs and defense agencies of the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) convened the fifth meeting of the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) in Washington. This is a necessary meeting for the alliance as North Korea becomes increasingly provocative and as it deepens its new military partnership with Russia, which includes military transfers. While the main thrust of the US-ROK alliance remains to be the North Korean threat, the alliance has broadened its cooperation to include larger interests in the Indo-Pacific and including small pivots to counter China, particularly because of President Yoon’s more ambitious foreign policy outlook.
The ROK and the United States recognized the deepening interconnectedness between the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic and discussed the implications for deterrence and U.S. nuclear posture. The two sides considered the impact of non-nuclear threats to the Alliance, including emerging technologies, and committed to leverage Alliance technology advantages to enhance the Alliance’s deterrence and defense posture… To that end, both sides committed to cooperating with likeminded partners to counter foreign misinformation on extended deterrence… In the context of a deteriorating security environment, the principals conducted a scenario-based discussion, for the first time at the EDSCG, to strengthen policy planning and coordination.
Acknowledging mounting regional threats, the ROK and the United States committed to continue close cooperation to ensure that ROK and U.S. strategies and postures enhance peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. The United States reiterated its ironclad commitment to draw on the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to support extended deterrence for the ROK. Both sides reaffirmed that any nuclear attack by the DPRK against the ROK will be met with a swift, overwhelming, and decisive response, and the United States reiterated that any nuclear attack by the DPRK against the United States or its allies is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime.
The EDSCG meetings were initiated under the 2023 Washington Declaration and are meant to bolster and deepen strategic coordination between Seoul and Washington. Under the Washington Declaration, the United States has increased the frequency of visitation of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula, like nuclear-armed submarines, aircraft carriers, and nuclear-armed bombers. In response, Seoul is establishing its own indigenous strategic command that will help deepen interoperability with American-controlled nuclear weapons. This week, US and ROK officials conducted their first table-top simulation to understand how each country will react and work together to respond to a North Korean attack. Whether the Washington Declaration is working on deterring North Korean aggression and reassuring alliance partners in South Korea remains debatable.
Furthermore, the United States and the Republic of Korea, in a display of unity and determination, convened the seventh US-Republic of Korea (ROK) Working Group on September 5-6. This meeting, with its focus on countering cyber threats posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), holds the potential to significantly enhance our collective security.
The meeting underscored the continued close collaboration between the U.S. and ROK governments to disrupt the DPRK’s ability to generate revenue through malicious cyber activity, which it uses to fund its unlawful WMD and ballistic missile programs. The working group included participants from 15 U.S. and ROK government departments, ministries, and agencies.
The United States and the ROK are pursuing a wide range of actions to prevent and disrupt DPRK cryptocurrency heists, address DPRK cyber espionage against the defense sector, stop third party facilitators from enabling DPRK illicit revenue generation, and dismantle DPRK IT worker infrastructure and networks. The Working Group meeting also focused on coordinated diplomatic outreach, information sharing, and capacity building for nations vulnerable to the DPRK cyber threat.
Ultimately, the Washington Declaration enhances and deepens US-ROK cooperation, but more importantly, it improves strategic coordination and planning. Coordination NOW is critical for rapid response LATER. Whether the Washington Declaration will deter North Korea is unknown, but it is successful in enriching US-ROK coordination.
Spoke Story: New Indian Attack Submarine
India's recent addition of the INS Arighaat, its second of four planned nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, is a significant milestone. This development further bolsters India's nuclear deterrence capabilities, particularly in the context of regional tensions with China and Pakistan. The new submarine, along with a third one set to join the fleet next year, underscores India's strategic focus on strengthening its maritime security and nuclear triad. Notably, India is one of only six countries, including the US, UK, Russia, France, China, and India, that can boast of having nuclear-powered submarines.
As far as capabilities, these nuclear subs have a 6,000 tons displacement and are equipped with 12 Sagarika (K-15) submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with a range of around 700 km, as well as versions of the nuclear-capable Nirbhay cruise missiles. India's growing submarine fleet contributes to India's decades-long effort to round out the maritime component of its nuclear triad. This is the current breakdown of India's submarine fleet:
Ballistic Missile Submarine (SSBNs): 2
Nuclear-Powered attack submarines (SSNs): 0
Diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs): 17
Air-independent propulsion (AIP) enabled: 0
India launched its Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) submarine program in the 1980s. To train its submarine crew, India frequently leases Russian nuclear Akula-class vessels (showcasing another point of close security partnership between India and Russia). India will be leasing another Akula-class nuclear submarine for ten years starting in 2025.
India still faces challenges when operating its emerging nuclear submarine fleet. In 2017, its first indigenousness nuclear submarine, INS Arihant, was left inoperable for a year when human error resulted in water entering its proposal chamber. It looks like the submarine crew has become notably better due to the lack of similar accidents.
The recent developments in India's nuclear submarine program should be viewed as a welcomed development by Washington, at least for now. The US-India relationship has been robust in recent years, as evidenced by the India Defense Minister's recent visit to Washington. The mutual support between Washington and New Delhi is crucial. However, the long-term implications of this development on the US-India relationship, especially in the next forty to fifty years, remain to be seen. Is India a reliable partner in this context? This is a question that will need to be addressed in the future.
Spoke Story: Japan Releases 2024 Defense White Paper
This week, the Japanese Ministry of Defense released its full 572 page White Paper. The White Paper highlights three major objectives:
Japanese Ministry of Defense: 2024 Defense of Japan:
The first one is to steadily actualize a fundamental reinforcement of defense capabilities of Japan. Building future core defense capabilities such as stand-off and IAMD (Integrated Air and Missile Defense) must be prioritized. Therefore, Japan is going to acquire various types of stand-off missiles earlier than originally planned, including Tomahawk missiles and the ground-launched version of upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles. Japan will expedite the start of the construction of Aegis System Equipped Vessels to defend herself from increasingly sophisticated ballistic missiles and other threats. Enhancing sustainability and resiliency is another important task. Japan will thus proceed to improve the operational availability of equipment, secure sufficient ammunition and guided missiles, and promote focused investments to improve the resiliency of defense facilities…
The second major objective is to cooperate with our ally, like-minded countries, and other partners. No country can now protect her own security alone. As challenges to the existing international order continue, it is critical for Japan to deepen cooperation and collaboration with our ally, like-minded countries, and other partners with whom Japan shares universal values and strategic interests…
The third major objective is to reinforce our human resource base, which is an urgent one. As Japan is in a midst of serious labor shortages, there is an increasingly fierce competition to secure human resources. SDF personnel constitutes the core element of defense capabilities of Japan. To procure excellent human resources in the competitive recruiting environment, we will take all necessary measures to reinforce our human resource base without ruling out any options. These consist of the enhancement of SDF recruitment capabilities, the effective use of human resources, the improvement of living and working environments, and the reformation of remuneration systems
Additionally, the White Paper specifically focuses on the China Threat. The White Paper mentions China 1,265 times, North Korea 538 times, and Russia 804 times. There is too much inside to breakdown the whole thing, but it is worth exploring in full.
Spoke Story: Vietnam and Philippines Sign New Defense Agreement
On August 30, the Philippines and Vietnam inked a new agreement to expand defense cooperation. As China pushes territorial claims in the South China Sea, the two Southeast Asian countries have slowly moved toward each other. More interestingly, though, is that Vietnam-China territorial disputes have taken a backseat to those happening to the Philippines. Zack Cooper and Greg Poling described the conundrum well in a War on the Rocks piece.
War on the Rocks: The South China Sea Dog that Hasn’t Barked … Yet:
Vietnam has been busy. In recent months, it has exponentially expanded the size of several features it controls in the Spratly Islands, including Barque Canada Reef, Namyit Island, Pearson Reef, and Discovery Great Reef. China appears to have allowed these expansion efforts to occur largely unmolested. And yet, elsewhere in the Spratlys at Second Thomas Shoal, Beijing is preventing the Philippines from supplying food, water, and limited building supplies to the handful of Filipino personnel on the Sierra Madre, a Philippine Navy ship grounded at the shoal in 1999. Why have Chinese leaders chosen to take such a hard line against resupply efforts by the Philippines while permitting Vietnam’s large-scale island building at multiple nearby features?
While only Letters of Intent have been signed, the joint statement emphasizes the tensions in the South China Sea. Despite their own territorial disputes in the sea, Vietnam and the Philippines have determined that closer relations are the right way to bolster protection in the South China Sea. In fact, the two countries pledged to continue to try to resolve their disputes through negotiation while indirectly calling on China to stop their provocations.
Both Ministers shared views on the need to maintain peace, stability, ensuring security, safety, freedom of navigation and aviation in the East Sea/West Philippine Sea/South China Sea. They also agreed to resolve all disputes by peaceful means, in accordance with international law, particularly the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982); effectively and fully implementing the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea/West Philippine Sea/South China Sea (DOC), building a substantive, effective Code of Conduct in the East Sea/West Philippine Sea/South China Sea (COC) in accordance with international law.
While the agreement details will be negotiated, it will revolve around enhanced military cooperation in humanitarian and disaster relief. This announcement comes after the two nations conducted joint coast guard training for search and rescue operations earlier this month. Ultimately, the growing relationship between Vietnam and the Philippines is one to watch. Nothing indicates that China is going to temper its assaults against the Philippines. Chinese behavior could very well push a once quiet and cautious Vietnam into tighter cooperation and maybe eventual coordination with the Philippines.
Spoke Story: Japan Australia 2+2 Meeting
This week, Japan and Australia hosted their 2+2 Ministerial Meeting in Queenscliff, Australia.
Notably, the ministers expressed their “concern about the increase of China’s military activities around Japan, especially the recent intrusion into Japan’s territorial airspace.” ASPI’s Justin Bassi and Alex Bristow noted that Australia’s support for Japan is critical for pushing back on Chinese behavior.
The Strategist: Wong and Marles Must Speak Up About Chinese Incursions Into Japan:
These latest incursions follow two violations of Japanese airspace by Russian helicopters since 2022—seemingly warnings over Tokyo’s support for Ukraine. An ineffective response, including from Japan’s partners, might embolden Beijing and Moscow to push their ‘no limits’ partnership even further, such as taking greater risks in the joint military exercises that they already conduct around Japan.
The two nations also stressed interest in continuing "to promote cooperation between counterstrike capabilities that leverage Japanese stand-off defense capabilities and Australia's long-range strike capabilities."
The cornerstone of the security relationship goes back to the 2022 Australia-Japan Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation. The new reaffirmation of their Special Strategic Partnership pledged to expand senior-level exchanges, military exercises, and broader defense cooperation and interoperability.
Additionally, the ministers announced their intention to:
launch Australia-Japan-US Trilateral Infrastructure Consultations,
enhance cybersecurity cooperation through the Cyber Policy Dialogue,
collaborate on initiatives for security and stability in the Pacific region, including maritime cooperation with Southeast Asian countries and Japan's Official Security Assistance (OSA),
work together to strengthen the connectivity and digital resilience of the Pacific by establishing an Australia-Japan Pacific Digital Development Initiative (PDDI),
enhance bilateral operational capabilities and interoperability through operations and joint exercises, leveraging the Australia-Japan Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA),
exchange liaison officers for the future establishment of Japan Joint Operations Command (JJOC),
consult with AUKUS partners and Japan on opportunities for cooperation on AUKUS Pillar II Projects,
and welcome Australian defense personnel’s participation in the Japan-United States Bilateral Information Analysis Cell (BIAC) and affirmed expanding trilateral intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) cooperation.
What is great about allied cooperation—absent American participation— is its federated approach to supporting shared goals in the Indo-Pacific. The press releases note that their shared alliance with the United States will be central to their foreign and security policies. However, it is a net positive for American interests when allies work together to provide developmental assistance to the Pacific Islands or collaborate to enhance each other’s long-range capabilities.
Worth Your Time
Australia:
Breaking Defense: US Marines, Australian Army Plan Tests Around Island-Hopping Stern Landing Vessel
Naval News: Rohde & Schwarz Australia secures Hunter class frigate communications contract
Japan:
South Korea:
Naval News: Hanwha Ocean Becomes First South Korean Shipyard to Secure US Navy MRO Contract
Stimson Center: Will South Korea’s Defense Industry Boom Change US-ROK Military Relations?
India:
United States: