Navigating 2024: Admiral Franchetti’s Project 33 and the Future of the US Navy
Navigating 2024: Admiral Franchetti’s Project 33 and the Future of the US Navy
Navigation Plan 2024; US Army Pacific Strategy; Military AI Summit; Asia Power Index; US-India Defense Dialogues
Hub Story: US Navy Navigation Plan 2024
Spoke Story: US Army Pacific Theater Strategy
Spoke Story: South Korea’s Military AI Summit
Spoke Story: India Third Most Powerful in Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index
Spoke Story: US-India Defense Dialogues
Alliance Insights: Key Articles This Week
Hub Story: CNO Navigation Plan 2024
US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Lisa Franchetti released her 2024 Navigation Plan, which lays out her strategic priorities for the US Navy and announces the US Navy’s Project 33 approach.
Executing the Navigation Plan:
This Navigation Plan drives toward two strategic ends: readiness for the possibility of war with the People’s Republic of China by 2027 and enhancing the Navy’s long-term advantage. We will work towards these ends through two mutually reinforcing ways: implementing Project 33 and expanding the Navy’s contribution to the Joint warfighting ecosystem…
The seven Project 33 targets are:
Ready the force by eliminating ship, submarine, and aircraft maintenance delays
Scale robotic and autonomous systems to integrate more platforms at speed
Create the command centers our fleets need to win on a distributed battlefield
Recruit and retain the force we need to get more players on the field
Deliver a quality of service commensurate with the sacrifices of our Sailors
Train for combat as we plan to fight, in the real world and virtually
Restore the critical infrastructure that sustains and projects the fight from shore
Project 33 sets new targets but we do not need new levers to reach them. This is core to my guidance. We will deliver results using the tools and resources we have to gain ground without losing speed.
The strategy is realistic and puts emphasis on the real barriers to a stronger navy:
We must recognize that the Navy faces real financial and industrial constraints, including the once-in-a-generation cost of recapitalizing our strategic nuclear deterrent. Right sizing the fleet will be a generational project for the Navy, Congress, and industry. Even as we increase the role of robotic and autonomous systems in the fleet, we will continue to need a deep bench of Sailor and civilian talent to meet our mission.
I wish there were more of a call to action. Branch strategies must work with the available resources and cannot get too political. Still, there is also a responsibility to provide guidance on what resources they need to accomplish political goals, like fighting and winning a war with China. I understand the desire of uniformed leaders to display confidence, but sometimes, this leads to complacency in political leadership. For example, during a recent panel event at the American Enterprise Institute, Dr. Kori Schake praised the Biden Administration's advancements in force posture in the Indo-Pacific but questioned if we lacked actual progress on force structure. To defend the administration, Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner noted that INDOPACOM Commander Paparo often says he has everything he needs to fight and beat China. We're in an awkward pendulum between displaying confidence and sounding the alarm for robust rearmament. The majority of responsibility falls to the political civilians to make this case about resourcing, but I fear that uniformed leaders often exacerbate the issue.
Spoke Story: US Army Pacific Theater Strategy
On September 15th, US Army Pacific (USARPAC) released its theater strategy guided by the motto “Get in a Position to Compete, Fight and Win.” Led by General Charles Flynn, USARPAC has constantly tried to emphasize the role of the Army in the Indo-Pacific. Flynn himself is continuously on the think tank events circuit, and this theater strategy is in part written to convince the reader that the US Army is important (critical?) to a US-China contingency.
This Strategy Reflects a Central Idea: As part of the Combined/Joint Force, Army forces achieve positional advantage with decisive landpower to win the long-term strategic competition, and, if called upon, to prevail in war through four strategic methods:
We ORGANIZE the most battle-winning mix of capabilities to transform in contact and execute the Theater Army’s required missions, roles, and functions across the competition continuum.
We GENERATE the combined and joint warfighting capacity to prosecute multidomain operations against our opponents, namely the PLA.
We APPLY landpower on key terrain creating unity of effort, imposing adversary dilemmas, and empowering our partners to defend their sovereignty and assert their rights.
We BUILD Joint Interior Lines for warfighting that create enduring advantages, allow Army forces to control decisive points, and provide staying power to the Joint Force.
Central to USARPAC’s strategy is this idea of achieving and holding positional advantage.
Foremost to our success is achieving positional advantage, a favorable condition that provides us freedom of action or, at a minimum, windows to maneuver. We achieve positional advantage with forces undergoing “Continuous Transformation” who occupy key terrain in competition and seize, hold, and defend land areas in combat. Key terrain is physical in the sense of geographical locations that are decisive to maneuver, but it is also non-physical, such as a leader’s mental calculations of warfare or how information connects humans to the physical world.
USARPAC has boosted capabilities in the region this year:
Deployed Mid-Range Capability to the Philippines
Launched Precision Strike Missiles from Palau to sink a moving ship during Valiant Shield exercise
Launched High-Altitude Balloons with sensing and communications capabilities from Guam
Supported Malaysia Maritime Domain Awareness with a Combined Information and Effects Fusion Cell
Deployed a battalion from 1/1 Armor from Texas to South Korea, drew equipment, and conducted a live fire exercise within six days
One of the issues with the strategy is that it is almost entirely focused on the China threat and its planning for that contingency. Obviously, this is critically important, and planning is needed. However, the Korean Peninsula is only referenced briefly a few times in passing. Yet, the Korean Peninsula is USARPAC's primary operation in the region, with around 22,000 US Army soldiers stationed in South Korea. The Korean Peninsula is becoming increasingly less stable, especially as the North Korean and Russian relationship gets deeper. USARPAC will undoubtedly have a role to play in the China fight. Still, if it pivots to focus primarily on the China operation, it may hinder regional stability by failing to prep and resource the Korean Peninsula adequately.
Spoke Story: Military AI Summit in Seoul
South Korea co-hosted the Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) summit in Seoul along with the Netherlands, Singapore, Kenya, and the United Kingdom. Government and military officials, as well as business leaders from more than 90 countries, discussed responsible development and use of AI in the military sector and how to establish international norms for the matter. The result was the Blueprint for Action, signed by around 60 countries, including the United States but not China.
The 2024 Blueprint for Action is meant to complement REAIM’s 2023 Call to Action. The 2024 statement is much more explanatory on how militaries should build and incorporate AI. Some of the key themes emphasized are that military AI should abide by international law and ethics, be protected from bad actors, ensure that humans are held accountable for all AI actions, and adhere to a structure of rules and regulations.
Most of the actions from the non-legally binding blueprint are fairly generic. It’s concerning that Beijing would decide against signing onto it. There may be some language in the blueprint that Beijing is worried might be used against them down the road, for example:
Emphasize that such a discussion should take place in an open and inclusive manner to fully reflect wide- ranging views, bearing in mind that different states and regions are at varying stages of integrating AI capabilities in the military domain, come from different security environments and have varying security concerns.
Regardless of the precise reason for China’s withdrawal, it looks like a good step forward on American leadership with China protesting on the sidelines.
Spoke Story: Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index
The Lowy Institute has released its 2024 edition of its Asia Power Index, assessing the geopolitical dynamics across the Indo-Pacific. Lowy measures 131 indicators captured in eight categories of power.
The new report offers many insights, and it’s worth exploring the data in full. One significant development is that India has surpassed Japan as the third-most powerful country in the region.
Lowy Institute: Asia Power Index:
India performs best in the future resources measure, placing 3rd behind only the United States and China. By contrast, India’s lowest-ranked measure is economic relationships, a result of the country sitting outside the regional economic integration agenda.
India’s score improved across the resources measures in 2024, although it did not gain a ranking in any measure. It dropped one place for both economic relationships and defence networks to 10th and 9th, respectively, repeating its performance in 2023 when its rankings also declined for each of these measures.
When looking at the annual changes to India’s power, there is a boost across the economic dimensions of India’s power, with limited and diminishing gains in India’s military power.
Most of India’s influence is found in its near abroad, with Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Myanmar being the countries most influenced by New Delhi. Some of these gains might be the product of Indian Prime Minister Modi’s Act East Policy, which has resulted in closer economic, technological, and strategic collaboration, especially with ASEAN.
The other side of this story, is Japan’s relative decline. The notable distinction between India and Japan is their future resources category. Diplomatically and economically, Japan remains strong, but India has a much better hand to play when forecasting a decade from now.
Lowy Institute: Asia Power Index:
Japan scores best in diplomatic influence, where it ranked 2nd in 2024, pushing the United States to 3rd place.
Japan’s lowest scores are for resilience and future resources, for which it ranks 7th. While its score for resilience increased by four rankings, its score for future resources declined by two places.
Japan’s biggest improvement in a measure score in 2024 was for defence networks, where its increased activity with the United States and other regional partners saw its score rise by 13.1 points.
However, as the Indo-Pacific approaches the 2030s, Japan’s demographic challenges will sap its comprehensive power. Overall, India ranks third on future resources, while Japan is at a modest seventh place. Even more telling is the comparative demographics between the middle powers. India leads the Indo-Pacific nations on future demographics, while Japan lags even further behind. For the next few years, India and Japan are bound to bounce back and forth between third and fourth place, but India is the safe bet for the coming decades.
Spoke Story: US-India Defense Dialogues
The US-India INDUS-X initiative held its third summit in Silicon Valley on September 9th, with a strong focus on strengthening defense industrial cooperation and innovation. This was achieved through the active participation and contributions of defense technology innovators, investors, and researchers. Key topics included co-producing advanced military capabilities, improving supply chains, and enhancing US-India military interoperability for a free and open Indo-Pacific. The summit featured the signing of an updated Memorandum of Understanding between the US Defense Innovation Unit and India's Defense Innovation Organization to expand cooperation on defense innovation, and the launch of a new INDUS-X webpage for investors and startups.
The growing INDUS-X initiative has many defense outcomes. One interesting development on the security front is the growing defense industrial collaboration.
Defense Innovation Unit: INDUS-X Impact Report:
US-India industrial partnerships provide advanced defence capabilities and reinforce defence supply chains. Skydio, a U.S.-based manufacturer of A.I.-enabled unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), announced a new partnership with Aeroarc, an Indian-based UAS manufacturer. Through this partnership, Skydio and Aeroarc will strengthen defence capabilities, expand artificial intelligence (AI) collaboration between the US and India, and support demand from global customers. General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc., a US- based unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) manufacturer, announced two partnerships to support US-India industrial collaboration on India’s future MQ-9B UAV program. General Atomics will leverage expertise from 114ai, an Indian technology company, to jointly develop software and artificial intelligence models to process ISR data more effectively. General Atomics is also partnering with Bharat Forge and an Indian engineering company, to manufacture MQ-9 components and assemblies in India for use on all MQ-9B aircraft worldwide. Liquid Robotics, a Boeing Company, highlighted their collaboration with Indian partners to develop capabilities of the Wave Glider Uncrewed Surface.
Additionally, President Biden and Prime Minister Modi met on the sidelines of the UN and Quad gatherings. The two nations agreed that India would be more proactive in helping secure maritime trade, “The Leaders reaffirmed their support for the freedom of navigation and the protection of commerce, including critical maritime routes in the Middle East where India will assume co-lead in 2025 of the Combined Task Force 150 to work with Combined Maritime Forces to secure sea lanes in the Arabian Sea.”
During his testimony before Congress, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell confirmed that the US and India would also hold dialogues about coordinating on security issues in the Indian Ocean. As Campbell admits, the Indian Ocean falls between the cracks of the Indo-Pacific Command and Central Command, leaving a gap in US security attention. It seems that INDOPACOM Commander Paparo will lead the Indian Ocean engagement.
Alliance Insights:
Australia:
Defense News: Australian Army to Grow, Diversify its Drone Fleet
Breaking Defense: Lockheed Nearing Test of Sea-Launched JAGM, Pitches for US and Australia
Japan:
Naval News: JMSDF Set to Establish a New “Fleet Information Warfare” Command
State Department: Approved Sale of Japan of KC-46A Aerial Refueling Aircraft
India:
Brookings Institute: The US-India Partnership and the 2024 Elections
The Indian Express: Maldives, India Resolved ‘Misunderstandings’ After Rough Patches in Ties
Times of India: Ammunition from India Enters Ukraine, Raising Russian Ire
South Korea:
War on the Rocks: South Korea’s Nuclear Latency Dilemma
Yonhap News: Army Chief Discusses Arms, Defense Cooperation in Poland, Romania
Pacific Islands:
The Strategist: PIF Hack Highlights the Need for Cyber Capacity Building