South Korea Signals Strength
Quad Confusion, Lowy Polling, and Trilat Meeting
Hub Story: South Korea Doubles Down on Strength
Spoke Story: What is Going on with the Quad?
Spoke Story: Lowy Polling is Out!
Spoke Story: Trilat Vice Ministers Meeting
Hub Story: South Korea Doubles Down on Strength
On Thursday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol spoke at the Seoul National Cemetery to commemorate Memorial Day. He called for a more assertive South Korea, a stricter approach to North Korea, and a closer U.S.-ROK relationship.
In a Reagan-esque manner, Yoon contrasted South Korea as the prosperous, shining nation with the dark, repressive neighbor to the north. Yoon criticized North Korean provocations and argued for a strong South Korea as the only way to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula.
The Korea Times: Yoon Vows to Remain Vigilant Against North Korean Provocations:
“Peace is maintained through strength, not through submission. We can transform North Korea only if we grow stronger,” the president said. “Building upon the more robust ROK-U.S. alliance and cooperation with the international community, we will firmly safeguard our people's freedom and safety.”
Since President Biden took office in 2021, North Korea has conducted 113 missile tests, which is double the amount of tests performed during President Trump's administration. Most of these tests came in 2022 in the lead-up to the South Korean election, as well as a response to Yoon's victory.
Yoon's foreign policy has prioritized strengthening deterrence, involving both internal and external balancing. Internal balancing refers to the measures a state takes to increase its own military and economic strength to counter potential threats, without relying on alliances or external assistance. Recent South Korea internal balancing initiatives include:
Large and sustained defense budget increases
Development of indigenous weapons systems like the KF-21 Fighter Jet and K2 Black Panther Tank
Upgrading missile defense systems like L-SAM development and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system
Embracing a new offensive strategic outlook
However, what is notable about Yoon's approach is his embrace of external balancing, which refers to the strategy by which a state seeks to counter potential threats by forming alliances and partnerships with other states to enhance its security and influence. South Korea's alliance with the United States has always been the foundation of the ROK's defense strategy. However, as North Korea and China become increasingly assertive, Seoul has reached out to regional neighbors like Australia, India, and Japan.
This week, a U.S. B-1B Lancer bomber conducted a live munition exercise alongside U.S. and ROK fighter jets. It's notable because while the advanced B-1B bomber has been involved in many flight exercises, this is the first live munition exercise with B-1B bombers since 2017. Additionally, the United States and South Korea conducted a large-scale river-crossing exercise this week.
Yonhap News Agency: S. Korea, U.S. Stage Combined River-Crossing Drills:
The five-day drills began Monday at Namhan River in Yeoju, 61 kilometers southeast of Seoul, involving some 590 troops and 243 mechanized assets and aircraft, including CH-47D helicopters, K1A2 tanks and K808 armored vehicles, according to the Army.
During the drills, troops from the South's 7th Engineer Brigade and the U.S. 2nd Infantry Division built a 280-meter pontoon bridge in three hours, allowing the vehicles to swiftly cross the river and reach their target destination.
These exercises become more critical as relations with North Korea continue to deteriorate. This week, South Korea announced it was suspending the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement, which created no-fly zones and land and maritime buffer zones where military drills and maneuvers were banned. Seoul attributed North Korea's constant violations of past agreements and their recent action of launching hundreds of balloons over the border. Yoon has sought support from Asian neighbors like Japan as tensions escalate.
Yoon has received harsh criticism from domestic opponents for his outreach to Tokyo due to the continued negative attitudes between the two nations. However, this hasn't stopped significant progress being made. ROK-Japanese security cooperation has been gangbusters since leaders from South Korea, Japan, and the United States met last August for an official trilateral security dialogue at Camp David last year. The Center for a New American Security has a great report covering trilateral progress since last summer's inaugural meeting. The authors include a breakdown of the 14 trilateral military exercises conducted since August 2023, many of which seem unthinkable just two years ago.
This past weekend, on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore, U.S.-South Korea-Japan defense chiefs announced a new trilateral military exercise that will be multidomain. This latest exercise, dubbed Freedom Edge, has been a priority for the three nations since the Camp David meeting last year. It is important to note that while the exercise will include air, sea, underwater, and cyber components, it will NOT involve ground or amphibious operations.
While the three countries have recently held air and sea drills outside the Korean Peninsula to bolster security cooperation against North Korean threats, they have yet to stage a trilateral ground or amphibious landing exercise.
South Korean officials appear to be mindful of possible public backlash against such drills that could involve Japanese forces coming into South Korea and evoke memories of Japan's brutal 1910-45 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula.
Despite the growing coordination between Seoul and Tokyo, public animosity remains. Leaders from both controls will work to push those boundaries, especially as the security environment in Northeast Asia continues to deteriorate.
For example, South Korean and Japanese defense ministers announced the resumption of high-level military talks after they were suspended in 2018. CSIS’s Chris Johnstone and Victor Cha have a great analysis of the importance of this development that is worth reading in full, but here is a section:
CSIS: South Korea and Japan Cement Bilateral Security Ties:
The deal between Seoul and Tokyo is significant for several reasons. First, it signals the growing strategic convergence between Tokyo and Seoul, in ways that go far beyond a common response to the North Korean threat—which has long been the primary basis for security cooperation between the two countries…
Second, the agreement affirms that the deepening networks of security cooperation across the region are organic—and not simply an artifact of U.S. policy…
Third, the deal established a framework that will create rules of engagement and reduce the risk of future mishaps between the two militaries, which often operate in close proximity to one another…
Fourth, the agreement came just six days after the China-Japan-ROK trilateral summit on May 26–27. The juxtaposition of these two events clearly shows that while the China-Japan-ROK trilateral summit called for lofty cooperation goals like a trilateral free trade agreement—which is unlikely anytime soon—cooperation among Japan, South Korea, and the United States is achieving concrete and practical outcomes at an accelerating pace…
Finally, the defense agreement at Shangri-La and the trilateral meetings last week manifest a continued political commitment by both Japanese and South Korean leaders to stay the course despite domestic unpopularity at home.
Washington plays a critical role in South Korea’s security. South Korea not only relies on its alliance with the United States but also depends on the United States to help facilitate broader cooperation with Japan. No doubt, leaders in Seoul and Tokyo have taken incredibly courageous steps in the past couple of years, but their shared relationship with the United States makes it easier to bridge that once-impossible gap.
Spoke Story: What’s Going on with the Quad?
Mira Rapp-Hooper, senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the White House’s National Security Council, told Nikkei Asia that a 2024 Quad Leaders Summit will be held after the U.S. election. Foreign ministers from the United States, India, Japan, and Australia have confirmed that they will meet this summer in Japan.
The Quad has been in a weird state of purgatory this year, primarily due to the elections in India. In 2020, the Quad as we know it was reincarnated, and while there were efforts to expand the Quad’s portfolio, it was recognized mainly as a security dialogue. After the post-2020 Quad was established, the Malabar naval exercise became one of its main features. This exercise has included ships from all four Quad nations and has been held yearly since 2020. However, no Malabar exercise has been planned for 2024, and there has been no indication that an exercise is in the works either.
The original Quad was formed in 2004 and was created as a disaster relief coordination body after a tsunami hit the Indian Ocean. And now it seems to be returning back to focus on disaster relief?
Nikkei Asia: U.S. Finds New 'Brand' for Quad, Starting with Papua New Guinea Relief:
Rapp-Hooper noted that the Quad began in 2004 to coordinate aid to areas hit by the Indian Ocean tsunami. She said disaster relief is important to the Quad not only for its history, "but the way the Quad wants to function now. We've tried to build the brand of the Quad as a grouping that can provide public goods for the region in a way that demonstrates high quality, high standards."
This is the wrong approach. Washington is sacrificing important security initiatives for difficult public good efforts. It’s good that the Quad wants to provide public goods like disaster relief, but the main focus should be its original mission, security dialogue. When the Quad tried to do conduct vaccine distribution through the Quad Vaccine Partnership it largely failed to meet its own goals.
The Diplomat: The Disappointment of the Quad Vaccine Partnership (July 2022):
Despite receiving continuous financing since 2021, the first doses from the partnership were only delivered in early 2022. Further still, the Quad has delivered less than half of its pledged 1 billion doses, with six months to go until the end of 2022. Further still, for many countries, the Quad’s donations pale in comparison to Beijing’s. In Cambodia, for example, the Quad’s inaugural donation of 325,000 doses in April is less than 1 percent of the more than 40 million doses sold or donated by Beijing. In fact, ironically, the individual Quad members have had greater success on their own, as each nation has donated millions more doses unilaterally than through their joint partnership.
It’s okay to keep the scope on these minilateral narrow. The Quad should stick to being a security dialogue that occasionally provides public goods, not the other way around. If Washington should push for another Malabar naval exercise this year.
Spoke Story: Lowy Polling is Out!
This week, the Lowy Institute in Australia released the results of its annual survey polling Australian attitudes on various issues facing the continent-nation. Its an invaluable resource for those trying to gleam insight into the priorities of the Australian public. There is a lot to digest in the report, but below are some take aways that most impact American security policy.
Public Support for AUKUS Remains High, But Trending Down
Announced in 2021, AUKUS has enjoyed a somewhat trepidatious support from the Australian public. The high cost tag of as much as A$368 billion and public concerns about the nuclear component of the nuclear-powered submarines, has left the public unease but not enough to fully abandon the initiative.
At a broad level, majority public support for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines has held relatively firm. In 2024, almost two-thirds of Australians (65 percent) remain either ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ in favour — similar to last year, though five points below 2022 (70 percent), shortly after the deal was announced. One-third (32 percent) of Australians are ‘somewhat against’ or ‘strongly against’ acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.
Australian Public is Split on how to Approach China
Since 2016, attitudes toward China have noticeably dropped. For example, in 2015, only 39 percent of Australians thought China would become a military in the next 20 years. Today, 71 percent think China will become a military threat to Australia.
Despite the concern about China, a slim majority of 51 percent of Australians think the government should “place more importance on a stable relationship with China than working with allies to deter China’s use of military force.” Additionally, another slim majority, only 53 percent, believe China is more of a security threat than an economic partner. This goes hand-in-hand with the results that 75 percent think “Australia’s alliance with the United States makes it more likely Australia will be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia’s interests.”
The U.S.-Australia alliance still has high favorability, with 63 percent thinking “the alliance relationship with the United States makes Australia safer from attack or pressure from China.” However, Australians are conflicted about the best how tough Canberra should be going on China and how its relationship with the United States will impact Australian security in the future.
Summer of Love for Japan
Finally, Australians consistently see Japan as their favorite neighbor. Japan has the highest trust of any nation, with 87 percent of Australians trusting Japan to act responsibly. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and French President Emmanuel Macron are tied for second place in terms of highest confidence among world leaders, each with 61 percent. 42 percent of respondents said that Japan was Australia’s best friend in Asia. The second country was Singapore, at 16 percent. Finally, when asked which nation (besides the United States and the United Kingdom) should Australia develop a closer security relationship with 45 percent of Australians said Japan, more than doubling the second place finisher of India which had 18 percent.
Spoke Story: Trilat Vice Ministers Meeting
While the American, Korean, and Japanese defense ministers were meeting in Singapore announcing new security initiatives, another trilateral meeting was being hosted by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his Japanese and Korean counterparts.
It's hard to discern whether this meeting is a precursor to a leaders summit with Biden, Yoon, and Kishida, potentially happening this summer. Or is it merely a consolation prize? With Biden in a challenging re-election campaign and both Kishida and Yoon facing low approval ratings at home, the leaders might be prioritizing their domestic concerns. However, the potential credibility boost from a high-profile trilateral summit could significantly strengthen domestic support.
In the joint statement released by the vice ministers, China is of course not mentioned by name. However, the first issue that is discussed is not North Korea, but Chinese aggression against the Philippines in the South China Sea and provocations toward Taiwan.
We strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the waters of the Indo-Pacific and recognize the importance of opposing unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea. We committed to continuing our discussions on the development of the Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation Framework to address the multifaceted challenges of the maritime domain, including maritime law enforcement based on the Letter of Intent signed by the coast guards of our three countries. We reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity in the international community. There is no change in our basic positions on Taiwan, and we call for the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues.
Not much has developed with the Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation Framework. It occasionally makes it ways into statements, but it doesn’t seem like anything concrete has been announced or even indicated. It was one of many initiatives announced at Camp David in August 2023.
FACT SHEET: The Trilateral Leaders’ Summit at Camp David:
Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation Framework: The United States, Japan, and the ROK are establishing a trilateral maritime mechanism to synchronize partner capacity building in Southeast Asia and Pacific Island countries, with a focus on Coast Guard and maritime law enforcement capacity building and maritime domain awareness.
With so much Chinese coercion in the South China Sea, hopefully the three countries will release this framework soon.
Worth Your Time:
South Korea:
Japan:
Nikkei Asia: Japan approves treaty for next-gen fighter development with U.K., Italy
Hudson Institute: How Japan Can Become a Major Exporter of Naval Combatant Vessels
Nikkei Asia: Japan, South Korea move past radar row to improve defense ties
The Philippines:
Australia:
Nikkei Asia: Australia to expand military recruitment to permanent residents
ABC News: Australian Army to bring locally made lethal drone 'the Owl' into service within months
India:
The New Indian Express: Navy warship Shivalik leaves Singapore for maritime exercises with Japan, US