The Future of US Forces in Japan: SOFA Revisions on the Horizon?
Okinawa Basing; Australia Buys American Missiles; AUKUS Pillar II Exercises
Hub Story: Japan to Push for Change in US Forces Agreement?
Spoke Story: Australia Buys American SM-2 and SM-6 Missiles
Spoke Story: AUKUS Pillar II’s “Maritime Big Play”
Alliance Insights: Key Articles This Week
Hub Story: Japanese Politicians Calls for Revision to US Forces Agreement
As Japan’s Lower House election results trickle in, revising the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) is attracting public attention due to ongoing issues like disruptive night flights and environmental concerns related to US military operations in Okinawa. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has committed to pursuing changes, supported by opposition parties, while officials from the Foreign and Defense Ministries express caution about potential strains on Japan-US relations. LDP’s main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), has long supported SOFA revision in Okinawa. Critics argue the current SOFA, finalized in 1960 and revised in 1990, is inequitable and fails to adequately protect residents’ rights and safety.
SOFAs are multilateral or bilateral agreements that generally establish the framework under which US military personnel operate in a foreign country and how domestic laws of the foreign jurisdiction apply toward US personnel in that country. Japan’s Okinawa prefecture hosts a significant portion of American troops stationed in Japan, which has often caused friction with the local inhabitants.
SPICE: Understanding Okinawa's Role in the US-Japan Security Arrangement:
Problems resulting from US military on the island manifest themselves in several key areas. First, given the trend toward urbanization in central Okinawa since the end of World War II, many US military installations now sit in highly populated areas, where they once did not. For areas hosting installations with ground units, this poses an irritant; for areas in which aircraft constantly take-off, land, and train, it poses a potential danger. Second, US military concentrations give rise to a sizeable number of complaints from local governments and citizens, such as the negative impact on the tourist industry and economy, environmental issues, training accidents, and crimes committed by US servicemen and their family members against local citizens. Finally, because of the Government of Japan's dual responsibilities to Okinawa as an administrative prefecture and its obligations to the US under the Mutual Security Treaty, it is often placed in the role of "middleman," trying to accommodate US military operational needs and local concerns, with varying degrees of success.
US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma has been the primary source of friction between the local Okinawa inhabitants and US Forces Japan. The relocation of Futenma has been a long conversation. In 1999, US Forces Japan and the Japanese central government agreed to relocate Futenma from the residential, urban location to the more isolated Henoko on the island’s coast. Okinawan officials have demanded that the base be relocated outside of the prefecture altogether, while US Forces Japan and Tokyo have advocated for the relocation to remain on Okinawa at the Henoko location.
Earlier this year, the Japanese central government made a decision that the base relocation will remain on Okinawa. While some initial construction and landfill work has been completed, the relocation process is far from over and is expected to take at least nine years to complete.
Even as opposition parties like the CDP win the election this month and potentially form a coalition government, they seem unlikely to fully reverse course on Futenma’s base location. However, to appeal to Okinawa residents, both a CDP and LDP government may push for a revision to SOFA. If Japanese leadership insists on revision, the two countries will have to balance local demands while remaining supportive of alliance goals.
The Asahi Shimbun: Renewed Focus on Revising Japan-US SOFA Ahead of Election:
A 1996 Japan-US agreement restricts flights at the Futenma air station between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. to only those deemed operationally essential. However, observations by the Okinawa Defense Bureau show that takeoffs and landings during those hours have remained between 300 and 400 per year. From January to August this year alone, there have already been 392 flights―an average of 1.6 per day.
The environmental and health impacts are another concern to residents.
Eight years ago, an Okinawa prefectural survey detected high levels of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)―cancer-causing organic fluorine compounds―in rivers and the groundwater near a US military base. Since then, Nakasone has told her children not to drink from the tap. Even when residents complained, the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement serves as a barrier, preventing Japan from limiting U.S. military flights. Okinawa Prefecture’s efforts to investigate the sources of PFAS contamination have also been stalled, as access to the bases requires US consent, which has yet to be granted.
Whether the new government will prioritize revising or reforming the US-Japan SOFA will have to be seen.
Spoke Story: Australia Buys American SM-2 and SM-6 Missiles
Australia has announced a $4.7 billion purchase of advanced American-made SM-2 and SM-6 air defense missiles to enhance its military capabilities amid rising competition with China. The deal, finalized in spring, aligns with Australia’s 2024 defense strategy to expand its naval fleet and strengthen its defense industry. This acquisition highlights ongoing US-Australia collaboration, particularly regarding the AUKUS agreement.
The 2024 Australian National Defense Strategy prioritizes acquiring long-range strike capabilities.
Australian Ministry of Defence: 2024 National Defense Strategy:
Across the coming decade, investment in the integrated, focused force will be extended to deliver increases in combat and enabling abilities in the following capability priorities…
targeting and long-range strike to provide a greater capacity, at longer ranges, to deter any attempts to project power against Australia
Acquiring and producing a large and sophisticated missile arsenal is a crucial defense priority for Canberra. Earlier this year, Australia announced they would co-produce the Naval Strike Missile and Joint Strike Missile with Norway’s Kongsberg Defense company.
These acquisitions support Australia’s Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) Enterprise. GWEO invests A$4.1 billion to acquire more long-range strike systems and manufacture longer-range munitions in Australia. However, with this new announcement, it looks like Australia is investing even more funds. The enterprise already boasts some achievements:
Australian Ministry of Defence: Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise:
Accelerated the acquisition of guided weapons including Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range (JASSM-ER) long-range strike missiles, naval strike missiles and sea mines. Sea mines will be maintained in Australia with a view to technical transfer to enable local electronics servicing and load, assembly and pack of sea mines.
Agreed with the US to deepen cooperation on Australia's GWEO enterprise by collaborating on a flexible guided weapons production capability in Australia, scoping co-production of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) by 2025.
Commenced domestic manufacture of BLU-111 aircraft bombs.
The acquisition of the SM-2 and SM-6 is a significant development for the United States, which traditionally is cautious about sharing missile technology even with close allies. This August, Australia became the first country besides the United States to launch an SM-6 missile from a warship. The SM-2 is critical for missile defense, while the SM-6 can provide air and missile defense, it also has exceptional offensive anti-ship capabilities.
Australian Ministry of Defence: Safeguarding Australians with Boost to Air and Missile Defence:
The acquisition of the Standard Missile 2 Block IIIC (SM-2 IIIC) and Standard Missile‑6 (SM-6) is a significant milestone in the Government’s rapid progress in boosting the long-range capability of Navy’s surface combatant fleet.
The SM-2 IIIC and SM-6 are the most advanced air and missile defence weapons in the world and will be progressively deployed across Navy’s Hobart class destroyers and in the future, the Hunter class frigates. This follows the recent successful test firing of a SM-6 from HMAS Sydney.
The SM-2 IIIC and SM6 contain advanced technologies that will greatly enhance the lethality and effectiveness of our Navy ships in line with the National Defence Strategy and the Independent Analysis into Navy’s Surface Combatant Fleet.
The SM-2 IIIC brings active seeker technology and significantly enhanced defensive capabilities against missile threats.
The SM-6 missile will provide Australia with extended range air defence capability against air and missile threats, an offensive anti-ship capability and for the first time, a terminal ballistic missile defence capability.
The SM-2 IIIC and SM-6 complement existing capabilities such as ESSM Block 2 and Naval Strike Missile as part of a layered strike and missile defence capability for Navy’s surface combatant fleet.
Australia’s renaissances in long-range strike capability is a great development for American security. As Washington strategizes and plans for a Taiwan contingency, Australia is becoming more critical as a staging ground and maintenance hub for US forces. It is vital to US defense policy that Australia has a robust arsenal to defend the Australian homeland and develops credible deterrence through long-range strike capability.
Spoke Story: AUKUS Pillar II’s “Maritime Big Play”
This month, Australia, the UK, and the US conducted "Maritime Big Play," a series of integrated exercises aimed at enhancing interoperability and capability development within the AUKUS partnership. The exercises focused on operating uncrewed maritime systems, sharing naval data, and improving real-time maritime awareness to support decision-making. Notably, the event involved the evaluation of new technologies from private sector companies, highlighting the involvement of various stakeholders in refining operational practices, enhancing joint capabilities, and strengthening the resilience of supply chains among partner nations.
One of the major exercises conducted under the umbrella of Maritime Big Play was Exercise Autonomous Warrior, hosted by Australia. Exercise Autonomous Warrior showcased advanced Australian-developed military technologies, enhancing strike capabilities and persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Key systems included the OWL-B loitering strike glider, the Bluebottle uncrewed surface vessel, the Ghost Shark underwater vehicle, and the Speartooth, highlighting the government's commitment to advancing the defense industry and innovation in Australia.
Asia-Pacific Defense Reporter: AUKUS Pillar II in Action at Exercise Autonomous Warrior 2024:
Deputy Prime Minister, the Hon Richard Marles said: “Exercise Autonomous Warrior is an exciting and tangible demonstration of progress being made under AUKUS Pillar II. Pillar II is a generational opportunity for our three nations to harness and uplift our collective innovation enterprises and industrial bases, strengthen cooperation, and together deliver advanced capabilities across our defence forces.”
This is the first exercise structured around AUKUS Pillar II. AUKUS leaders have organized Pillar II as a mission-focused initiative. AUKUS defense leaders create specific missions they want to collaborate on and prioritize. Pillar II was created to help support those combined missions by utilizing advanced technologies in each country. AUKUS leaders have become more open to collaborating with other allied countries on Pillar II. Japan seems like the obvious first partner. However, New Zealand, South Korea, Canada, and other countries have been speculated as future contributors. It will be interesting to see if these Pillar II exercises will expand as more nations participate in Pillar II.
Alliance Insights: Key Articles This Week
Australia:
Breaking Defense: Australia to Award 155 Shell Production Contract in Coming ‘Weeks,’ Minister Says
The Strategist: Australia’s Defence is Lost in a Fog of Strategic Failure and a Lack of Imagination
Naval News: Australia Invests Heavily to Expand Shipbuilding Precinct in the West
Taiwan:
US State Department: The 2024 Fifth U.S.-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue
India:
Hindustan Times: India Launches 4th Nuclear-Missile Submarine
Japan:
War on the Rocks: Russian Pacific Fleet Redux: Japan’s North as a New Center of Gravity
Nikkei Asia: Japan and U.S. Hold Evacuation Drills for Islands Near Taiwan
Defense News: US Navy Ousts Top Commanders of Ship Repair Facility in Japan
Kyodo News: Japan, Britain, Italy to Speed Up Work on Next-Gen Fighter Jet Plan
Australian Defence Magazine: Japan Approved to Buy RIM-116E Missiles, Build Maintenance Facility
Philippines:
US State Department: US Advances Cooperation with Japan and the Philippines to Build Economic Resilience
South Korea:
War on the Rocks: How Australia and South Korea Are Recrafting Their Relationship and Fortifying the Indo-Pacific
USNI: New Philly Shipyard Owners Promise ‘Big Time’ Investment
Yonhap News Agency: S. Korea to Launch 3rd Military Spy Satellite in December
Yonhap News Agency: Yoon, British FM Agree to Cooperate Against N.K.-Russia Military Cooperation
Yonhap News Agency: S. Korea, Indonesia agree to expand cooperation in defense, EV