The New Squad Rolls Up
Will the Squad replace the Quad?
Thank you for checking out the Hub-and-Spokes newsletter. Each Friday, I will be providing analysis on the biggest developments surrounding military cooperation between the United States and its Indo-Pacific partners.
There’s a lot to go over this week from a new Squad in town to various side meetings happening in Asia. Make sure to subscribe to stay up to date and thanks for reading!
Hub Story: The New Squad Forms
This week’s Hub Story is the announcement of the new “Squad” alignment between the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines.
This week officially ended Admiral John Aquilino’s tenure as INDOPACOM Commander. Aquilino has been such a strident voice for American defense policy that it will be unusual not to have him in his official capacity. Aquilino’s successor, Admiral Samuel Paparo, has officially taken control of the ship, so to speak.
Not even a whole day into his new position and he has already introduced a new acronym to DoD’s evergreen devotion initialism. Rather than the ubiquitous gray zone warfare terminology, Paparo prefers borrowing from his Filipino counterparts who use Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive, and Deceptive (ICAD). The precision is a welcomed introduction, but what this means for policy remains to be seen.
However, on the sidelines of this event, the defense ministers from the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines gathered to announce new cooperation initiatives. Apparently, DoD officials are trying to coin this new minilateral as the “Squad.” Hopefully, Squad merchandise is in the pipeline.
The joint readout was primarily focused on the South China Sea.
Joint Readout From Australia-Japan-Philippines-United States Defense Ministers’ Meeting
“They strongly objected to the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels in the South China Sea. They reiterated serious concern over the PRC’s repeated obstruction of Philippine vessels’ exercise of high seas freedom of navigation and the disruption of supply lines to Second Thomas Shoal, which constitute dangerous and destabilizing conduct…
The leaders emphasized their commitment to strengthen cooperation in support of regional security and stability, following the Maritime Cooperative Activity in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone on April 7, 2024. They underscored that multilateral defense cooperation among the four countries is growing stronger than ever, and welcomed progress in coordination at all levels. The Ministers and Secretaries discussed opportunities to further advance defense cooperation, including through continued maritime cooperation in the South China Sea, enhanced procedures to enable coordination and information sharing arrangements, as well as strengthening capacity building.”
The joint statement is pretty explicit that Chinese coercion in the South China Sea against the Philippines is pushing these nations together. U.S.-Philippines cooperation has always been fulsome, but the Philippines has never really expanded security cooperation with any neighbors. That has been changing in recent months.
For the first time, Japan invited the Philippines to observe the Japan-led ANNUALEX military exercise that they participated in with the United States, Australia, and Canada. That was followed up in April by a Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) with the soon-to-be Squad nations, basically a maritime military patrol designed to push back on PRC claims in the South China Sea.
That leads us to the new Squad announcement. Some are already speculating about whether the Squad will replace the Quad as the premier minilateral in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad, which includes the United States, Japan, Australia, and India as its members, has been somewhat dormant. The last Quad leaders meeting was May 2023. There is still no official announcement on a 2024 leaders meeting, though something may happen on the sidelines of the G7 meeting this month. Additionally, since the Quad’s reincarnation in 2020, the Malabar naval exercises have been the Quad’s staple joint display of military cooperation. There has been no indication if one will be held in 2024.
Since Biden took office in 2021, he elevated the Quad as the premier multinational organization in the Indo-Pacific. The Biden Administration and senior officials like Kurt Campbell have made a big bet on India. New Delhi would be the counterweight in the Indian Ocean while the United States and Japan balanced against China in East Asia. It seems that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken the Quad’s resilience. Heavy sanctions on Russia have strained the U.S.-Indian relationship. Even though Biden and Modi are careful not to display animosity toward each other, the lack of progress on Quad initiatives indicates that Washington and New Delhi are not in the mood for deep engagement.
I think it is most likely that the new Squad will have a narrow mission focused on upholding norms in the South China Sea. The Philippines will be the biggest beneficiary of this new grouping. However, so far, it has failed to reach the same ambition as the Quad once did. There’s plenty of time on the clock. Maybe cooperation will expand and deepen, but that remains to be seen.