The Wicker Defense Buildup?

Wicker, Cost-Sharing, New Caledonia, and Co-Development

May 31, 2024

Hub Story: Senator Wicker’s Defense Major Defense Spending Plan
Spoke Story: South Korea and U.S. Negotiate Cost-Sharing
Spoke Story: Unrest in New Caledonia
Spoke Story: Japan and U.S. Pursue Co-Development

Hub Story: Senator Roger Wicker Unveils Ambitious Military Buildup

On Wednesday, Senator Roger Wicker, ranking Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee released a spending proposal that would increase defense spending by $55 billion.

The White House released its $850 billion defense spending budget earlier this year. The House Armed Services Committee passed its $884 billion spending proposal this month. Both the president’s and the House’s plans adhere to the debt deal passed in 2023, which limits defense spending increases to just 1 percent. Wicker’s plan does NOT comply with the spending caps and would eventually increase federal defense spending to around 5 percent of GDP; currently, the United States sits around 3 percent of GDP.

Senator Wicker’s military buildup is both strategically sound and politically viable. Wicker accurately assesses the problem the United States faces:

The New York Times: America’s Military Is Not Prepared for War — or Peace:

When America’s senior military leaders testify before my colleagues and me on the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee behind closed doors, they have said that we face some of the most dangerous global threat environments since World War II. Then, they darken that already unsettling picture by explaining that our armed forces are at risk of being underequipped and outgunned. We struggle to build and maintain ships, our fighter jet fleet is dangerously small, and our military infrastructure is outdated. Meanwhile, America’s adversaries are growing their militaries and getting more aggressive.

Wicker’s proposal is meant to address the mismatch between the security threats the United States faces and the actual capabilities and readiness of the U.S. military to address those threats. In many ways, Wicker’s spending plan properly resources the strategies and priorities of the Biden Administration. The Biden Administration recognizes China as the only state with the intent to challenge the American-led international order and the economic, military, and technological power to do so. However, the spending caps seriously harm the United States’ ability to compete and win. And most Americans agree.

2023 Reagan National Defense Survey:

Supermajorities of Americans support increasing defense spending. Overall, 77%—including 71% of Democrats, 71% of Independents, and 87% of Republicans—favor increasing government spending on the military… Two-thirds of Americans 677%— including 76% of Republicans and 61% of Democrats—are concerned that budget cuts by Congress will reduce the military’s capabilities. These findings demonstrate the divide between American public opinion and policy debates in Washington.

Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell signaled his support for Wicker’s plan, but it will face many hurdles in the coming months. But how does it impact U.S. priorities in the Indo-Pacific?

Senator Wicker’s office provided a 52 page report explaining where all $55 billion in additional defense funding would go.

21st Century Peace Through Strength: A Generational Investment in the U.S. Military:

The full report is worth reading. I only extracted the line items for INDOPACOM and the Navy, but the other breakdowns will have implications for the Pacific. Here are some key points:

Guam gets major investments in missile defense and resilience infrastructure. Wicker rightly notes that the Guam Defense System has been underfunded and needs to be a priority. Hawaii, Midway, Guam, and the Pacific Islands are the stepping stones to China. Ensuring their survivability is critical.
Virginia-class submarines get fully funded to its usual 2 a year procurement.
Shipyard industrial base and workforce gets major investments for large and small surface combatants, carriers, landing craft, and submarines.
F-22s and F-15Es get funded to prevent their forced retirement.
Increased production for JDAMs, JASSMs, LRASMs, and GMLRS

Ultimately, it is unlikely that Wicker’s proposal will pass specifically as he has laid it out. It’s even doubtful that Congress and the president will forgo the Fiscal Responsibility Act and decide to pass increased defense spending beyond the allotted 1 percent. However, the contribution is still significant. On the merits, Wicker is correct that Congress should fully fund the military. Wicker’s plan is serious and hopefully starts a critical conversation about future U.S. defense spending.

Spoke Story: South Korea and U.S. Negotiate Cost-Sharing

The United States and South Korea finished a second round of negotiations to determine future cost-sharing structures for the U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula. Every few years, Seoul and Washington negotiate new terms for cost-sharing; this will be the 12th so-called Special Measures Agreement (SMA). The 11th SMA—negotiated during the Trump Administration— will expire at the end of 2025.

Seoul and Washington started negotiations in April and are eager to get an agreement soon, primarily due to concerns about what an agreement would look like under another Trump Administration. In a recent interview, Trump expressed frustration with how much South Korea pays for the U.S. military presence and was cagey about whether he would pull troops out of South Korea because of it. For perspective, the Government Accountability Office provided an assessment of recent figures:

GAO: Benefits and Costs Associated with the U.S. Military Presence in Japan and South Korea:

The United States has over 80,000 troops deployed in Japan and South Korea. We found that U.S. forces help strengthen alliances, promote a free and open Indo-Pacific region, provide quick response to emergencies, and are essential for U.S. national security.
The United States incurs costs to achieve these benefits. From 2016 through 2019, the Department of Defense spent roughly $20.9 billion in Japan and $13.4 billion in South Korea to pay military salaries, construct facilities, and perform maintenance. The governments of Japan and South Korea also provided $12.6 billion and $5.8 billion, respectively, to support the U.S. presence.

Under the 11th SMA negotiated by the Trump Administration, South Korea will probably pay roughly $6-6.5 billion by the end of 2025, a notable but not dramatic increase. If Trump wins in November, it will likely be that he will want to renegotiate the terms of whatever deal the Biden Admin ends up being. No details have been leaked on what the U.S. is asking for and what the South Koreans are willing to give.

Washington is in a challenging position. President Yoon has proven to be a great partner. His outreach to Japan has taken significant political courage, his foreign policy is more supportive of Washington’s larger security goals in the Indo-Pacific, and he has taken a much tougher stance on North Korea. Policymakers in Washington—both Biden and Trump—face political pressure to “get the best deal” from these negotiations. As the security guarantor for Seoul, Washington holds considerable leverage in these negotiations. However, if either the Biden or Trump Administration push too hard, they might hurt Yoon with his domestic audiences, resulting in an electoral defeat in his next presidential election and thereby depriving Washington of an important partner.

Spoke Story: Unrest in New Caledonia

French authorities regained control of New Caledonia’s capital, Noumea, after two weeks of violent unrest that left seven people dead and caused significant destruction. The violence began in response to proposed constitutional amendments that would change voting lists, which pro-independence Kanaks feared would marginalize them further. A major police operation involving 400 security forces, including elite units, resulted in 12 arrests and the dismantling of 26 roadblocks.

New Caledonia is an autonomous French territory in the South Pacific, a reminder of the once domineering empire. While the United States has done some joint military exercises with New Caledonia’s forces, the actual strategic importance for Washington is that it is an essential node for France’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific. In 2019, France released its Indo-Pacific Strategy white paper.

France’s Indo-Pacific Strategy:

Five main objectives were defined in the French defence strategy in the Indo‑Pacific.
Ensuring and defending the integrity and sovereignty of France, the protection of its citizens, its territories, and its EEZ.
Contributing to the security of regional areas by promoting military and security cooperation.
Preserving, alongside its partners, access to common areas in a context of strategic competition and increasingly restrictive military environments.
Participating in the maintenance of strategic stability and military balances of power through international action based on multilateralism.
Anticipating security risks brought about by climate change.

To support these objectives, France supports roughly 7,000 defense personnel, 15 warships, and 38 aircraft in the Indian Ocean. There are also 2,800 personnel, 10 ships, and 15 aircraft in the Pacific Ocean. Paris is an influential partner for Washington, especially in the South Pacific. But beyond France's direct role in the Indo-Pacific, they are also a strategic bridge connecting the Pacific and Europe. France's growing leadership in Europe makes it a meaningful advocate for peace in the Pacific. While the people of New Caledonia have consistently voted against independence, civil unrest, as demonstrated these past couple of weeks, harms France's legitimacy as a Pacific power.

While Washington's capacity to support may be somewhat limited, there are significant economic opportunities in New Caledonia. The region's economy is bolstered by major exports of nickel and ferroalloys, with most of these exports going to South Korea, Japan, and China. As the world's second-largest importer of raw nickel, the United States has a clear stake in this market. New Caledonia's economy, however, has been hampered by a decline in nickel exports, leading to aid from France. To bolster France's position in the Pacific, Washington should explore innovative ways for American businesses to tap into New Caledonia's lucrative nickel exports.

Spoke Story: Japan and U.S. Pursue Co-Development

The U.S. and Japan have announced some early progress on new weapons co-development. During Prime Minister Kishida’s trip to Washington in April, Washington and Tokyo pledged to make more progress on defense industrial cooperation, declaring they would convene a Forum on Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition and Sustainment (DICAS).

The White House: United States-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement:

To leverage our respective industrial bases to meet the demand for critical capabilities and maintain readiness over the long term, we will convene a Forum on Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition and Sustainment (DICAS) co-led by the U.S. Department of Defense and Japan’s Ministry of Defense to identify priority areas for partnering U.S. and Japanese industry, including co-development and co-production of missiles and co-sustainment of forward-deployed U.S. Navy ships and U.S. Air Force aircraft, including fourth generation fighters, at Japanese commercial facilities, in coordination with relevant ministries. This forum, in conjunction with our existing Defense Science and Technology Cooperation Group, will better integrate and align our defense industrial policy, acquisition, and science and technology ecosystems.

On May 15th, the U.S. and Japan announced the co-development of a missile defense system, the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI). The GPI is designed to defend against hypersonic missiles and is planned for deployment in the mid-2030s. Hypersonic missiles are an acute threat to the United States and Japan.

Bloomberg: China Leads the World in Hypersonic Technology:

China leads the world in developing, testing and deploying hypersonic weapons, beating out Russia while the US, having already spent $12 billion, has yet to field even one. The weapons can travel five times the speed of sound, making interception by existing defensive systems difficult at best. China, senior US defense intelligence analyst Jeffery McCormick told Congress Tuesday, has the world’s “leading hypersonic arsenal” thanks to Beijing’s two-decade long effort “to dramatically advance its development of conventional and nuclear-armed technologies and capabilities through intense and focused investment, development, testing and deployments.”

The U.S. and Japan have announced a way forward in the co-development of the GPI. The Biden Administration has rightly been pushing more defense industrial base cooperation with allies in the Indo-Pacific. These initiatives allow Washington and its partners to leverage the best parts of their defense infrastructure while mitigating domestic inefficiencies.

U.S. Department of Defense Statement on the Signing of the Glide Phase Interceptor Cooperative Development:

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is leading the development of GPI for the DoD, which will provide hypersonic missile defense capability during the glide-phase portion of hypersonic flight. Per the signed GPI Cooperative Development (GCD), Japan will lead development of rocket motors and propulsion components of GPI.

It is reported that U.S. and Japanese officials will hold the first official DICAS Forum in Tokyo in June.

Nikkei Asia: U.S., Japan to Hold First Weapons Cooperation Meeting in June:

William LaPlante, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, will meet with Masaki Fukasawa, the commissioner of Japan's Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency (ATLA) for the inaugural meeting of the Forum on Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition and Sustainment (DICAS), according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The two-day meeting will begin on June 10 with discussion on ramping up co-production of Patriot surface-to-air missiles and the future co-development of common jet trainers, according to a U.S. government official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The Patriot missile production is particularly important because Washington has sent a significant amount to Ukraine and the Middle East, depleting U.S. stockpiles. In December, Japan also transferred Patriot missiles to the United States to resource American support for Ukraine. Currently, Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries manufactures Patriot missiles under a license agreement with Raytheon. The ramping up of the co-production of Patriot missiles will greatly contribute to Washington's global priorities.

Additionally, LaPlante and Fukasawa will discuss co-sustainment for the U.S. fleet.

Nikkei Asia: U.S., Japan to Hold First Weapons Cooperation Meeting in June:

Maintenance of U.S. Navy ships in Japan has become increasingly important after American shipyards closed down following the end of the Cold War.
Huge backlogs at the remaining docks have caused delays in repairs and the overhaul of warships. The swelling number of destroyers and submarines that are unavailable as they wait to be repaired have become a concern amid a rapid Chinese naval build-up. China is already the world's largest navy in terms of ship numbers.

Ship maintenance has rightly been a priority for Washington. American shipyards are limited and can not support the needs of the U.S. Navy. Earlier this year, the U.S. Navy signed a Master Shipyard Repair Agreement (MSRA) with an Indian shipyard that will conduct repairs for navy ships, bringing the total number to three Indian shipyards the U.S. has access to. The question remains whether these shipyards will grant access to the United States during war.

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